4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 77

New York Jets 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 5-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to DAL 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model