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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 8

Dallas Cowboys 24 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 8, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model