Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Jets 10 – Dallas Cowboys 24

(3:52) 5-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to DAL 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model