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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 69

New York Jets 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 5-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to DAL 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model