4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 17

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 17-B.Aubrey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.15 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 17, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model