4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 47

New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to ARI 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.71 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP