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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 6
New York Giants 14 – Arizona Cardinals 28
What Actually Happened
(9:47) 8-D.Jones up the middle to ARI 4 for 2 yards (93-J.Ledbetter).
The Three Options
GO
+3.64 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 6, worth -0.17 EP
KICK
+1.71 EP
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
