Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 44

Arizona Cardinals 28 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 16-N.Cooney punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.76 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP

KICK -0.23 EP

50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
50% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model