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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 19

Arizona Cardinals 14 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 5-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-N.Cooney.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.14 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 19, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model