Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 79

New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to ARI 37, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-G.Dortch to NYG 49 for 14 yards (41-M.McFadden; 82-D.Bellinger). PENALTY on ARI-29-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.05 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model