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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to PHI 46 for 12 yards (41-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.59 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -2.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model