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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 14-R.Wright punts 57 yards to PHI 7, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-11-N.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model