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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 10-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to MIN 30, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-21-S.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model