Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

(12:35) 14-R.Wright punts 49 yards to PHI 31, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model