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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to HOU 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-45-E.Speed.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model