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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 33

Houston Texans 20 – Indianapolis Colts 31

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.40 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model