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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 18

Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 31

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 15-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 19% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.41 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 18, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model