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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 28 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.25 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP