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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 51

Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 28

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 16-T.Zentner punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.72 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model