4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 11

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 15-K.Fairbairn 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-16-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.59 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model