Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 72

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 14

(:46) 16-T.Zentner punts 40 yards to IND 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.58 EP
74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model