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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to CHI 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-38-D.Pitts.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.22 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -1.56 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model