4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.34 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 8, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP