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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 55 yards to CHI 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.44 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP