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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 20 at the 34
Chicago Bears 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 8-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
The Three Options
GO
-0.32 EP
-
21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.88 EP
- 79% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.68 EP
KICK
+0.48 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
- 32% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT
-0.53 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
