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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 11

Tennessee Titans 12 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.45 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model