4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 16 – Tennessee Titans 12

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 39-L.Hedley punts 44 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-K.Jackson to TEN 27 for 14 yards (27-I.Yiadom, 46-A.Prentice).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model