Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 9 – Tennessee Titans 9

(4:46) 39-L.Hedley punts 45 yards to TEN 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-K.Jackson to TEN 11 for no gain (28-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model