Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tennessee Titans 6

(4:41) 39-L.Hedley punts 49 yards to TEN 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-K.Jackson to TEN 30 for 12 yards (52-D.Jackson; 49-Z.Wood).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.81 EP
74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model