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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 14

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model