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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 64

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 39-L.Hedley punts 52 yards to TEN 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-K.Jackson to TEN 23 for 11 yards (7-T.Hill, 52-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model