Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

(1:30) 39-L.Hedley punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.30 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model