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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 1
Los Angeles Rams 17 – Seattle Seahawks 13
What Actually Happened
(9:49) 3-C.Akers left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.76 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.39 EP
KICK
+1.60 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT
-0.54 EP
- Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
