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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to LA 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 23, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model