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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 20

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 8-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.96 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 20, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model