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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(:36) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.76 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model