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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 23

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.78 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model