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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to SEA 31, Center-47-A.Ward. 31-D.Dallas pushed ob at SEA 49 for 18 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model