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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 67

Detroit Lions 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to KC 23, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-R.James to KC 32 for 9 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP