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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.05 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP