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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to DET 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.43 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP