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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 58

Detroit Lions 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -1.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP