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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 88

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to DET 41, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.70 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 88, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 46, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP