4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 2

Dallas Cowboys 6 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 17-B.Aubrey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 2, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP