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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 85

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 6-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to DAL 26, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-44-N.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 43, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model