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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 68

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 33

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to DAL 29, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 36 for 7 yards (59-C.Kreiter).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model