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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 33

What Actually Happened

(8:03) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at NYG 37 for 5 yards (7-T.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model