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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 18

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 26

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.97 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model