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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 48

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 26

What Actually Happened

(4:31) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 12-D.Waller to DAL 26 for 22 yards (21-S.Gilmore).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model