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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 16 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 20, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.34 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model